ZEN AND THE ART OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Well, here we are at last. Zendikar is hitting the shelves, the pre-release is over, and PTQ season is starting up. This is one of Magic’s great months, both here and everywhere else.
So, what’s the deal with Zendikar prices? This question is on everyone’s mind, including mine. I’ve been through this before, being the old-timer that I am. This has all happened before and it will all happen again, so we all say.
Basically, demand has, for once, outstripped demand. It’s Econ 101. Of course, most of us slept through that class or were hungover or just didn’t care, but in the end, that’s the heart of it. Demand is high because of the card quality, most specifically, of course, the ‘enemy fetch’ lands. Players both want them to play with and to speculate on. These 5 cards alone probably account for almost all the hype. That’s not a criticism on the rest of the set, just a compliment to those cards. See, those cards are bigger than Zendikar, bigger than Standard. They are perceived as being part of Magic past. People say ‘they don’t make cards like this anymore’ or ‘I remember when they used to make power cards’. Well, here are five. It’s my chance to get something I don’t think is offered anymore and feel like I’m part of what Magic used to be. Is that true? Yes and no. Magic is dynamic, constantly evolving game with lots of good new sets and cards. But, at least for my taste, I do think the game has been a little dry. Fetch lands + Lotus Cobra looks a lot more fun.
So across the world, as the Zendikar spoiler began to break, players went nuts. Here at Paradox, we’ve had nearly 3-4 times our normal pre-orders. Players who buy 1 box are buying 3. 1 case is 2, and so on. The same is true everywhere. The normally depressed price skyrocketed. Most players are used to paying anywhere from $80-$100 for a box of new cards. What they don’t realize is that full retail on a box is $145. This means that on a daily basis, the supply so outweighs the demand that boxes sell for 35-40% off. But this time, the tables have turned. The print run for Zendikar did expand, but not as much as demand. When stores and distributors can’t replace their supply at the same rate as players demand it, the price increases. Econ 101.
Honestly, it’s just like the gas price situation from a year ago. World demand on gas became so high and supply shrunk. Result: prices go up. So yes, by that example, when game stores raise prices, they, too, are earning ‘windfall profits’. Sorry, guys.
The obvious question is: Why didn’t WotC print more if they knew it would be hot? The answer is that there is no way to actually know what will be hot or not. Sure, you can guess. But in a bad economy, there’s no guarantee that players have the resources to buy even the amount of product they normally do, let alone expand their buying. For all WotC knows, the cool cards they put in might just prop sales up to the level they are used to. And if they print more and guess wrong, guess what? WotC loses big which no company can afford to do right now. That’s it.
What will happen next? Who knows. For now, players are paying more, but at least so far are not more than the actual retail price, just more than what they are used to. Pricing has yet to slow down purchasing.
In a world of unlimited resources, WotC would print unlimited amounts. We don’t live on that plane.
What about fat packs? Well, they are a great deal. Not only do they have 8 boosters, they also have 40 Zendikar full frame land. With most dealers selling that land at upwards of $.50, that’s $20 worth. Hint: If you find fat packs for retail, buy them. You won’t be sad. I know Paradox is starting them off at $39.99 and I predict they will be $50 in no more than two weeks time, if you can find them still.
Bottom line, we finally have what we’ve all been crying for, a hot Magic set with hot cards. We’ve got unprecedented player growth, huge tournament turnout, and great cards that are worth something. It started with M10 and is picking up speed. It won’t last forever. It never does. Let me cite Pokemon as example #1. There’s also Star Wars TCG, Lord of the Rings, and a few other splashes. Unlike most of those games, Magic won’t die and go away. Our best hope is that on the back end of this wave, we don’t lose all these new guys. We’ll inevitably lose some, but it would be great to see a healthy game with numbers above where they were a year ago as sort of residual. What we don’t want to see is the 1990s comic collapse. I don’t know how much fear of that there is. It all depends on how much product hits the market and how many people try to turn it into profit.
NEXT
I’m back on track and have lots more MTG stories. I’d like to blog about past set releases but this one turned into all Zendikar so maybe next time, kids.
